Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Powerful thoughts

While nuclear power should never be a first choice, due to the many dangers (in operation, the costs involved, and the waste material produced) it can be a viable alternative. That is, nuclear power is not something to 'direct away from' a priori, but an option.  Another topic of discussion in producing the energy that more than seven billion fellow travelers on this planet require now and will require in the future.   

Take for example France, the largest exporter of power derived from nuclear sources. The country has some 58 nuclear power plants, which produce about 70-80% of the electrical power in that country, or put in another way, about 40% or so of its total power consumption, versus about 10% in the United States.

The population density in France is more than 300% of that in the US (2004, that was 110 people versus 31 people, per square kilometer) so France's solutions would not be the  solutions for the United States, especially given the existing natural resources in each respective country based upon the area of the nation. But still, dismissing one particular solution over another out of hand (without a through investigation of the pros and cons, costs and benefits, and risks and rewards) is not necessarily a logical manner of determining the best choices overall. Life is full of dangers regardless of their source, either way.   Even if not planning on using such, one must understand all the factors relating to the issues in specific circumstances, so as to come to a reasonable conclusion based upon those specific factors.

As far as conventional fuel sources go, there are a number of issues involved, bypassing even the question of nuclear energy.   With conventional sources, hopefully (perhaps expectedly) research and development (as well as economic pressures and the like) will result in cleaner coal-fired power plants, although that still does leave the question of mining the coal, and its availability. Sources of methane give the impression that there is basically a limitless supply, although some debate still exists on the subject. New discoveries of oil, and the quantities of it available from shale (and the economic pressures and advances in technology) make it also a resource that should far exceed the expectations of its continued availability. So on multiple fronts, the use of conventional fuels does not seem to be going away any time soon, regardless of what using them means on an environmental front one way or the other. We must deal with what is, not what we want it to be.

So to get to the "alternative renewable sources" other than nuclear.

Hydro-based power is currently responsible for much of both the base and peak contribution to non-fossil fuel energy sources, but there is a limit to how much energy water can produce, which depends upon the location and the systems to produce it more so than we can directly control the water itself upon demand.

Wind-based power may contribute more and more, but there is a limit to both the efficiency and costs of wind turbines, as well as a limit to where we can put them and how many we can put there. There are also other ramifications such as aesthetic and wildlife concerns.

Solar-based power is also promising, with recent thin film and clear cell technologies that will spread out emplacement and efficiency. After taking into consideration life cycle and maintenance considerations of course. This seems the most promising of the alternative fuels.

Hydrogen-based power can also be an answer. Creating hydrogen fuel and stations in various areas with the population density or pollution concerns to make it practically or economically viable can be part of the answer.

Biofuels are also a possibility, but they have their own trip-wires, such as over the cycle, it seems that adding and removing the vegetation would lower the amount of greenhouse gases they can sink far more than the benefits of replacing petroleum provide. Although there is some indication that food sources may be impacted by using agriculture to produced fuel instead, this is probably a red-herring, perhaps; the source versus sink issue is a far larger concern.

In most of the above cases, the issue is also of storage. What battery technologies are here now, and what are on the horizon, to store the created energy that can't be fed back into the grid?

This all leads to the question. In the face of scarce resources, how do we best manage them for both the planet and humanity? What possible unintended consequences do we face now and in the future? Is humanity actually able to control what the weather and climate do? Are the same technological advances that allowed over seven billion of us to be alive able to reduce or remove whatever affect we have upon the planet, given the uncertainties that exist?

Regardless, when it comes down to the end of the trail on this subject, humans and their actions producing energy by the use of fuels and the way we shape the surface of our habitat is an issue that needs to be wisely managed and planned for in the future, and only by an honest assessment of all possibilities and their consequences can we reach a reasonable answer that will not cause other problems that we didn't expect.


Thursday, June 27, 2013

SCOTUS opens door for federal recognition of same-sex marriages

The federal definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman appears to be unconstitutional, with the expected sort of 5-4 split that essentially says it's an issue with no clear answer.

Not unexpected, given the number of states that provide for same-sex marriage, the military no longer excluding people based upon their sexual identification, and the general acceptance in popular culture of gay (male homosexual) and lesbian (female homosexual) characters in most forms of media and entertainment.

There's a set of train tracks, and the train isn't levitating or going off the rails or suddenly stopping against its own inertia.

So now the legal doors are open to recognizing same-sex marriages at the federal level.    Is anyone really surprised?     The times, they are a-changin'.


Thursday, June 13, 2013

The curiousness of time slipping

If not apparent from the last discombobulated rant, we're still in the middle of watching Revolution.   Well not the middle, finishing with 15 of 20.   So while everyone who watched one week at a time has the story, we don't.   It will be interesting to see how the guesses work out, but with how things are going, we don't guess much since it can be yanked any which way at this point.    Still, it's interesting.  Slow, although not slow-paced, with so much going on.   But we're kind of ready for the main story to be over, so if we learn anything in the meantime, no big deal.   Still, not purposely going out of our way to learn any more than what's in the show.

One thing that springs to mind about this, is rather than having one show to watch and then a week to think about things in it (or forget about things in it) instead,  watching two or five at a time compresses things.   Maybe it compresses them into something that maybe makes how the overall comes across less believable, more contrived, and aggravating than it would be otherwise.

Whichever, that is a question, which is difficult to answer.  How do you imagine watching something once a week, when you've been watching multiple episodes a day multiple days in a row?   You really can't.


Wednesday, June 12, 2013

You say you want a Revolution, well.... Not really.

The NBC television show Revolution.    We finally got around to watching it, and the story starts out with both a bang and a whimper.  Sort of like watching it.  

Make no mistake, the story is quite interesting.    An "enough to keep watching the show" sort of interesting.    However, this show has some major problems.   Perhaps you've noticed them.  Perhaps they've upset you as well.

We'll get into all that after the fold.   There will be spoilers.


Saturday, May 25, 2013

Carrot on a stick.

Do you offer the carrot, or do you use the stick?   Well, if you have a carrot on a stick, you can do either or both.  Neither is probably always an option as well.

One problem there is what if they don't like carrots. Add to that, what if they aren't bothered by the stick?

It's more like rock and a hard place but that's so overused and exceedingly trite.  Just typing it makes me feel like I do when I hear the sounds of the current Xbox 360 (which everyone calls the 360 of course).   I mean, it's all fine to be childish or proud of a Wii or prancy-dancy uber-queen-style gay or  ultra-feminine all 1950s-like or a fan of the overly dulcet or a product of the times in general, however you want to put it.    Somebody has to watch reality TV shows or there wouldn't be so many of them, QED and quid pro quo.    Yet not everyone appreciates trying to be converted to a certain point of view, especially those who already are.  

Obviously even that mild sort of thing is sure to bring disapproval or even anger, but like what much of the rest of this talk is about, those are all the sorts of things we'll discuss.  Ideas, personal preferences and how we react to things.   Examples are wonderful things, sometimes.


Friday, May 24, 2013

Other Considerations to the next post.


As an add on after the fact here.  

Although here on Saturday May 25th  I'm scheduling it to show it as from yesterday May 24th, hence the Friday date of the post.   That's in order to make it show up earlier in the blog post stream even though it was written after .  

Let's look and see some of the business take on some aspects of all that.   In case you've not been paying any attention, some background that probably fairly well details the overall.     So, after thinking what might others be saying about it all, here's a smattering of randomness new and old to get an idea why this isn't anything new.


At Xbox Reveal, Microsoft Hides A Priceless Asset

Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo, We're In A Console Rut

The Xbox One Misses the Perfect Set-Top Box Target

Mobile game sales to reach $11.7B by 2014, led by iPhone

Smartphones rocket past consoles for mobile game sales


And for another thing to chew on, at least hardware-gaming-wise.   Although it may  have (likely has) no practical bearing now.   And even if not having any practical bearing right this second, may have no practical bearing in the next  month.   Or in  three to twenty-four months.  Much can change in a quarter year to two years.   The hardware specs also not anything anyone's denying (as far as I know)  but hardware isn't the entire story, obviously.  Certainly though, the psfour will be beefier than the xbone if things remain the same.

Why the PS4 will be much more powerful than the Xbox One

Sunday, May 19, 2013

How Microsoft might royally bufu themselves with their new console (and not in a good way)

Some of these will be an instant issue, others might add up together.   But they're all really bad ideas.


1.  Always requiring an Internet connection.    

This one is just stupid.   It's been tried before and it's an unmitigated disaster.   Even if it had never been tried, it's idiotic.    Would we expect this from a company that is tying together all their OS products so brilliantly?    Hopefully not.  

2.  Blocking out used games.  

Not every title is a buy when it comes out or buy new, and plenty of money is made by selling online passes, map packs, song and dance downloads.  Sometimes people buy consoles and sign up for Live because they trade games.    Also, there are a number of companies that rent out games.    So attempting to alienate vast numbers far more than their horrible sounds already do, that's just plain extra  retarded.   As in backwards and slow and low-IQ.  Like a spark firing at the wrong time retarded.

3.  Getting rid of Micro Soft Points.  

They could replace it somehow, maybe, but getting rid of them totally in every way is probably not such a great idea.

4.   Making the console sounds and colors even more fru-fru and Wii-like.  

That's pretty self explanatory, but for those that really love the Wii and Wii games (Hello, it's Mario!!!!) they have a Wii already most certainly.    Even if  they're trying to convert people into dropping their current careers and becoming interior decorators, it's just a doomed idea.  

Yes, I have a Wii.   Yes, I've played a couple of games on it.  No, it's in a box somewhere not even hooked up.  No, my habits in various lifestyle areas are not applicable here.

5.  Resetting achievements.
6.  Not counting old achievements.
7.  Doing away with achievements.

Messing around with people's Gamer Score is a sure-fire way to tank things.   Removing the reasons people buy a great number of games only for that reason  ("the cheevos" is beyond the most moronic thing anyone could possibly ever do.   It's counter-productive, and antagonistic.    Customer no-support.   The definition of consumer unfriendly.  Hostile.  

Although it seems that would be impossible, as it would require everyone working at Microsoft to become brain-dead, or at least to forget everything they've learned since they introduced GS.  Since we know they've put in achievements and tied it all in with Windows 8 on PC, tablet and phone, how could they possibly make such a move?

8.  Requiring a Kinect.
9.  Putting more ads on the dashboard.

Both of those are seemingly non-sensical, but maybe they could make it work, somehow.    Probably not.

10.   I don't have a ten here either.   Perhaps later.  


So, anything else we can think of?   A number of people dislike or hate Microsoft as it is, so what would push you over the edge if you haven't already been by just the rumors?

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Addendum: 360 Game sales et al

To put all that game sales stuff in perspective, let's look at the worldwide sales figures for the overall  best selling games for the Xbox 360 that went over four million sales.  

Game  -  Year -  World sales millions

Kinect Adventures! 2010 20.04
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 2011  14.93
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2010  13.94
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 2009  13.02
Call of Duty: Black Ops II 2012 9 12.20
Halo 3 2007  11.77
Grand Theft Auto IV  10.25
Halo: Reach 2010 9.43
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare  8.89
Halo 4 2012  8.24

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2011  7.20
Call of Duty: World at War 2008  6.93
Battlefield 3  6.81
Gears of War 2 2008  6.62
Halo 3: ODST 2009  6.15
Gears of War 2006  6.00
Gears of War 3 2011  5.88
Kinect Sports 2010  5.59
Red Dead Redemption 2010 5.53
Forza Motorsport 3 2009 5.37


Assassin's Creed 2007 5.29
Assassin's Creed II 2009 5.10
Fable III 2010 4.92
FIFA Soccer 13 2012 4.65
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood 2010  4.52
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock 2007  4.39
Assassin's Creed III 2012  4.29
Fable II 2008  4.12
FIFA Soccer 12 2011  4.08
Fallout 3 2008 4.05

Forza Motorsport 2 2007 4.00

This is a "top 30" list, because the first title comes with new sales of a Kinect.  So any fan of any genre (even those who, say, bought a Kinect just to give voice commands in Mass Effect 3) "bought" a copy of  Kinect Adventures when they got the sensor.   That figure likely also includes console sales of  any of the Xbox 360 + Kinect bundles.

What this tells us is that historically, people who play games on this particular console, do so to large extent for games like those genres listed above.

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If you just want to go with the sales figures for North America all consoles, in November 2012 "Amazon online sales data" (for week 45 it was said) looked like this:

1. Halo 4 (Xbox 360)
2. Assassin’s Creed III (Xbox 360)
3. Just Dance 4 (Wii)
4. Assassin’s Creed III (PS3)
5. FIFA Soccer 13 (PS3)
6. New Super Mario Bros. 2 (3DS)
7. Madden NFL 13 (Xbox 360)
8. Pokémon Black Version 2 (DS/3DS)
9. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Xbox 360)
10. FIFA Soccer 13 (Xbox 360)

Which might also give us a clue as to what kinds of games might go with what kinds of consoles, at least in NA.

Why people buy the Xbox 360

This isn't a scientific study.  It's not even based much upon sales figures and not at all on those self-serving  surveys.  So this is rather mostly a non-empirical, rule of thumb off the cuff sort of story, with anecdote and "common sense" perhaps.   These aren't necessarily in order either; although the first one is the most important.

1.   There are a number of recent things that have certainly or likely broadened the appeal of the Xbox 360 to large extent, but primarily it's a gaming device.   So people buy it to play games upon it.   The number of people who have a 360 is the biggest reason people buy more, which feeds on itself.   But games is the main reason to get one    

What sort of games we ask?  Well there's a lot of them, but if the big sellers are the main reason, it's for those sorts of games then.   Sort of a QED, sort of a tautology.   To dip though into some random reports of dubious veracity then.  The top 10  best sellers of 2011 say, that starts with what's to large extent First Person shooters.   Ones with numbers in the titles,  as really all of them are.  Three being the most prevalent, trivially speaking.

Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3
Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Battlefield 3

In the case of what's affectionately known as Skyrim, it's a first or third person fantasy role playing game, but you do shoot things; magically, shoutingly and with bows.     It's also (for the voice commands) "Kinect enabled".   Which brings us to the rest of the list, being as the next two are actual  Kinect titles.

Kinect Sports Season 2
Just Dance 3

Followed out by mostly more shooters, first person and otherwise.

Halo 3 (Allegedly)
Gears of War 3
Saint's Row The Third (we see what you did there)
Fifa 12  (our only sports sim)
Batman: Arkham City  (technically, more like "Batman Arkham 2", but who's counting)

2.   That leads us to Kinect.   Figure and voice recognition, sports, edutainment, exercise, video chat and conferencing, game and AV control, and so on.   Kinect certainly hasn't hurt console sales.   Although it is as much a cool factor, a kids draw (think, interactive Sesame Street) and a user interface as it is anything else.  But only the Xbox 360 has it (aside from some hackers here and there, as they say) and it's a reason to get a 360.

3.  Multiplayer.    Part of the recent surge in console sales is weight; the more people playing multiplayer on a platform, the more reason there is for others to join in.   (It's also a big part of why the Call of Duty franchise is so big.)  

3.  Another part to that, perhaps the same thing, maybe another subject.    The multiplayer aspect goes along with the chat and party features of the 360, and the other way around.   Those are reasons to get a 360 versus one of the alternatives, a different console or a computer.      It's fairly seamless and easy to "chat and party"  as long as your friends (or new ones) are along for the ride.

-

For both of those, yes, it requires a "gold membership" of Live to use, but that's also needed to use IE , and so do many of the music/video/news/streaming features.   But at discount that "Gold Live" is $40 a year or so, you get a network (speed, stability, uptime)  that goes along with the price, and there are enough deals and freebies over a year where it ends up costing little or nothing in absolute terms.    

This aspect of paying for access is also a reason people don't buy a 360, but we're not talking about that here right now.

4.  Apps and such.    The addition of Internet Explorer (slow and HTML5 video/audio only really) might not mean much, unless you've got a keyboard and mouse and don't mind waiting and having no flash etc.  IE also replaced the Twitter and Facebook apps, which are also not much to speak of either. But the addition of things like Netflix, Vudu, MLB, UFC, ESPN, even though most are just front-ends to services you already have to have from the respective providers.    There are also free (to some extent, pay for premium, watch and listen to advertising, etc)  audio and video streaming apps though, Crackle, Last and so on.    Along with Xbox Video and Xbox Music (which used to be called Zune) for those who want to digitally rent or buy (regardless of cost, because of ease).   And a few more things.     Overall then, this in its entirety makes it a reason to buy, or at the least adds to the reason.    Of course, the 360 is also a DVD player, but even with a specific "regular" remote, that's not much of a reason to buy a 360 in and of itself.  Some $200 or $300 for a clunky big limited DVD player, not so much of a draw.    There are other pros and cons too......

However taken in total, all of these coordinated entertainment viewing options, plus and minus, offer a number of people a reason to consolidate things on one platform.

5.  Integration with other things that are all windowy-like.    Although for some, this item here is a reason to get the other things rather than a reason to get a 360.    But with the rolling in of similar interfaces and cross-platform logins and user data and other things, there's Windows 8 (the OS) and Windows Phone (7 and 7.5 and 8).   Throw in a tablet here, a laptop there, roll it back into the infrastructure, and as the French say, boom.

6.   Sound and visual schemes.   They've taken the wussiest and most wretched looks and sounds from the Wii say for example, and made everything look and sound like those sorts of things.   It likely brings over some fair number of buyers (or pushes them in), while the gamers just turn off the sounds (except for some apps that think it's fun to play the sounds too) and don't pay much attention to the colors.    Well, actually, the gamers are probably too busy actually playing games to worry about how things pander to the sorts of people that buy those other things.  All in all, it's probably a net-sum gain, one might guess.

7.   Microsoft points  MSP.   A convenient way to consolidate funds to get games on demand (overpriced usually,  and with no physical media ever, but something that appeals so some people), Downloadable content DLC (addins for games, songs and dances for such games, etc), share funds in a family.   Plus some of the other things (Xbox Rewards, Bing Search) let consumers get MSP for doing other things.

8.   Achievements.   A big part of the total, a meaningless number of great import.     It gives goals, reasons, something to count.   How many of the total (1000, 200, whatever) did you get out of the game?   Did you fully complete it, do you have a reason to replay it.    Not that it's needed, people play CoD multiplayer even without it, others don't care.   On the other hand, there are whole web sites just for them, such as this one and this one.  

9.   Hardware and software lock in.    If you game on the PC, and you play the newest games, and you want all the graphics and speed the games have to offer, you are going to be spending a lot of money frequently.   Say you've got a PC that's 2 years old and has a graphics card that cost $150 at the time.    What games are you going to play now that are new and this gen?   How about 5 or 7 years old.     Plus the whole PC support thing.    Do PC break and need to be replaced as much as the older Xbox that red ringed do?   Probably not, but the out-of-date PC will have to be upgraded or replaced.

The side benefit is greater graphic resolution and such possible on a PC, for those who spend $500 not really, and how many people buy $1000 or $3000 PC every year or two.    Maybe that's overstating things and making it seem a bigger deal than it is.   But much has been done on a hardware platform that has stayed stable and has requirements.   The software is optimized in ways it can't be on a wide variety of uncontrolled hardware.   Even more so, hardware that changes from month to month.    (Check the stats of a $350 video card from five years ago versus one from right now for example.  Which may we remind you please, is about the cost of a console with hard drive and a year of Live Gold.)  

Which that uncontrolled/controlled thing is the second part.   Cheaters, hackers, viruses, spyware on a console.   That goes for any console, but remember this is also a paid network.   How much, if anything, they actually spend on the network is another question, but there's no doubt they have teams watching for those people who abuse or take advantage of the system.    Maybe some don't like that control, or who's doing it, but most console buyers probably don't, regardless of what they think of Microsoft  Or Microsoft versus Sony versus Nintendo, for that matter.   Or even Valve and Steam on the other side of things.   Punkbuster, sure.   Xfire, of course.   And nothing here is meant to suggest PC gaming is worse or better, or that it isn't much bigger or much smaller overall just that these are factors.   It's also not meant to suggest the superiority of the mouse/keyboard (for most games) is in question.   :smiley:

10.  I'm sure there's a ten here somewhere, maybe later.  


So there you have it.   The main reasons that people buy Xbox 360s, which primarily is for gaming purposes.   Or at least that's probably where all the money is.     Some 12% of sales of all games is almost certainly a bigger chunk than the number of people using the cable apps to watch cable TV on an Xbox 360 or how many people are browsing the web with a controller in a single-use full-screen program on a console.


Sunday, May 12, 2013

Lightwave Saber Bass Optical Pickup System controls

The dials and iceTone switch explained pseudo-simply.


There are five knobs and a switch on a standard Lightwave Saber Bass, such as this one.  Here's what the controls do.


Switch.   Switch controls warmness and coolness,  somewhat akin to what a neck/bridge pickup switch does.    When up (towards the neck/top) this gives a "warm" tone.    When down (towards the bridge/bottom) this gives a "cool" tone.  "switched-in EQ that applies an upward-tilted frequency response curve"


First/top knob.   Master volume.   Controls optics and iceTone volume both.   All the way clockwise (right) is the loudest and all the way counter-clockwise (left) is the quietest.

Second knob.   Bass volume (boost/cut).   In the center is 0 dB.  Roughly 300 Hz knee.   All the way right (clockwise) is four times more bass (+12 dB) and all the way left (counter-clockwise) is four times less bass (-12 dB)

Third knob.   Mids volume (boost/cut).   Same as the second knob, cw +12 dB ccw -12 dB.  Frequency depends upon fourth knob position (varying Q).

Fourth knob.    Controls the mids range of the third knob.    Left/ccw is 200 Hz and right/cw is 1 KHz.   Narrower in the lower frequencies and broader in the higher frequencies.

Fifth/bottom knob.  Controls  iceTone.   HFE blending. .   All the way left/ccw is off.  Going right/cw adds percussive and high end presence and crispness.  "blends in the high frequency enhancement built into each individual string saddle"

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

The economics of it all

Without getting too very much bogged down in the details, let's see what's going on with some tech stuff.

On an auction (supposedly) site where you can buy things outright with ease, case in point.  Special offers, advertised on the main pages.

iPad Mini 16G 7.9" screen :  $300
Android 8G 10.1" screen:  $120

Of course you can't really compare them; one is very well put together and stylish, and the other is an entry level with a resistive touchscreen.   Still, if you just have to have a tablet, well.

How about phones?  Same place.

iPhone 4 16G $185
Droid Incredible $65

There's all sorts of factors that go into buying tech of course.   Sure, you can build a computer at home that is exactly what you want, for less than anyone sells the equivalent.    But how about an OS, and tech support, and the entire infrastructure built around name-branding.

I might just delete this post, it's stupid.



Monday, April 22, 2013

Interesting, because speed seems to be gathering.

Well, since last post, Google Fiber has announced a pretty large number of new neighborhoods in Kansas City KS/Kansas City MO, as well as a new city.   They're going into Provo UT.   In fact, essentially are there in Provo UT.   They're taking over the existing city fiber network, which they'll finish out.

We'll see at this end of this year how things are going in Kansas City, and during next year sometime what happens in Austin, and how things go in Provo during all that.

Really the only lesson here is that none of this is going to be instant or particularly widespread.     That calling this something like "just around the corner" in any of the three cities is rather premature, depending on which city it is.  Even in the farthest along places, it's not dominating or everywhere.   Being where Google Fiber is seems more a matter of luck.   Either way, it's not a thing that most people should be expecting to happen to them or soon.

Most people essentially being everyone that is not already pretty clearly in the path of pretty certain plans in those three cities.

Give it a few years.


Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The wishful thinking of you actually getting Google Fiber (or any fiber) in the next few decades. Unless you already have it, or a few other cases

Right now, there are plans for one other city to get Google Fiber, besides the one that has it.    The next city, starting out sometime next year, beginning in some place or another in that city.  That should come out sometime within the next year or year and a half until they actually start working on it.

Be that as proof of concept, experiment, publicity campaign, propaganda, fire under the staid interests of cable and phone and their non-competitive strangle-holds.    Potentially ignoring dark fiber and right of way and other fiber and cable and copper and PSTN and POTS and Satellite providers.   Not particularly important on the results side, just certainly a big deal on the implementation side of things.

But for now, forget about all that.    What (where) Google Fiber is?    Kansas City.    Both of them.

Oh, wow, but hey that's a whole big city, two cities, suburbs, lots of installs, right?    Yes, regardless of the sweetheart deals or what have you (that's just how it works) there is that -- it's someplace.  And it's now.

Yet what if you don't live in Kansas City?

Well, for that matter, what if you do.


Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Experiment and your part in it all

When we say your part, we mean the part of a few key people here and there, which pretty much doesn't include you or anyone you know, or anyone you'll ever even meet.   In general we mean.

And what, prey tell, is this experiment?  


Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Why humans will probably never run out of oil


The world economy runs on oil it's been said, the engine of commerce and so on.    Of course, when it comes to oil, people speak of gasoline, gas, petrol, fuel.   Which require things such as oil, a refinery, and a number of chemical substances (some of which are quite expensive themselves) to make this petrol/gasoline/diesel.  

Assuming that the planet Earth itself is far more hardy than even the most damaging actions of billions of humans and the many billions of their non-human animals, and assuming no mass human extinction, it's still very likely that humans will never run out of oil.

Well what is oil?   Where does it come from, how is it made?   Those are the sorts of questions that may be asked.   There's certainly no shortage of questions, many of which have no answers.   But there's at least plenty-o-info on that to research in all sorts of ways.   Fossil Fuel    Petroleum

Yet there are many who believe that oil is soon to run out, being it's a   non-renewable resource.   Which indeed it is, as far as anyone knows.     One of the prominent ideas about it is expressed in the concept of  Peak Oil.   (Although to be honest, that rather reminds of  Malthusian Catastrophe predictions.)  

We've already discounted that n billion humans can easily damage the planet beyond repair with even their most ignorant actions.   Dismissed that suddenly (geologically speaking)  humanity will vanish.   Of course, neither might be the case, they could either or both happen.   Still we'll limit the scope to have a discussion, those are other topics.   Plus  for all the talk of various related things (such as an atmosphere filled with 900 or 2500 ppmv of carbon dioxide drastically changing world average temperatures by multiple degrees) no such things have happened yet and might never. Since no matter how dire the predictions by how many and in whatever way, it's impossible to experiment with in our water-based long-term climate system, and nobody can tell the future.    So short of a very long planet-wide nuclear war or asteroid strike or loss of the moon and such, both the planet and humanity seem to be safe for the next few hundred or tens of thousands of years.

In addition, we'll also ignore ideas of the sun "blowing up" or "burning out" and for now push beyond the ideas of wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen and water alternatives.   After all, one never knows when some new method of power production will be technologically available and viable.   Such as say an existing thing like mechanized agriculture or some future thing akin to "cold-fusion" or whatever one might imagine it as.    (We are not trying to in any way suggest any of these sorts of future things are logical  sensible potential realities in and of themselves specifically, merely suggesting there are all sorts of things that might eventually be possible that are unknowns now.)

Oh, sure, the price of gasoline is out of control, it's getting more difficult to find oil, demand is way up while refinery capacity is way down, everything is so polluted, and so on.

Is it though?  

As far as gasoline prices, they're just recently at the place where the "actual cost and real cost" (consumer price indices, inflation, etc)  have come together.   That is, essentially gasoline costs just as much in a world with hundreds of millions of vehicles with internal combustion engines as it did in a world with hundreds of them.  Comparatively.    Which is to say, whatever you want to make of the data, it's easy to see for yourself what it is.   "Real" Gasoline Prices    Average Annual Gasoline Prices 1918-2012 Inflation Adjusted

The idea that oil is getting more difficult to find seems fairly nonsense given the high-profile news that often comes up.    It's like the belief that certain countries are oil-deficient because they don't have large reserves of crude.   Yet Canada, a country not typically known for its oil, has quite a bit of it.  So does South Australia it turns out.   Just not in the form of liquid currently.    And not all oil is taken directly or out of the ground.
 
Shale Oil   Oil Shale    Tight Oil

Coober Pedy    Arckaringa Basin    Mexico

Biofuel   Energy Crop   Maize  Sugarcane

( Beyond even all  that though,  there seems to be no shortage of new and large crude deposits being found now and then here and there from time to time.     2009     2012 )

That all rather ties into the money aspect we mentioned above, with a bit of other things tossed in.  Because "not running out of oil" does not mean it won't be terribly expensive and in use by fewer people in more limited ways.  

Even that's not a given though.   The fact is that while gasoline at $5 or $10 or $20 a gallon might become the standard, and might result in a quite different sort of society and economy, there appears to be plenty of oil in some form or another right now, and what comes next is something different.

We'll not get into supply and demand, because it's both complex and made further so by the new finds, political matters, non-crude sources of oil, environmentalist activists, and so on.   Neither will we go over pollution, which seems to be not quite the sloppy pervasive issue it used to be, what with all the environmental awareness these days.     Which is also to say the frequent near instant movement of data worldwide coupled with large numbers of people having a video camera with them at all times.


In the end,  even aside from the possibility they may not want or need to use oil at some point, there's no actual indication humans will be running out of oil any time soon.   Maybe never.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Jeffery Jacob Abrams, Michael Arndt, and Star Wars Episode VII

It's been said there were plans in the mid-70s for a total of 9 to 12 Star Wars episodes, which George Lucas allegedly only really dropped ideas for actually implementing them any time soon only in the 90s.   So it shouldn't be much of a surprise that Episode VII already had a quite a life (with what's been called an extensive story treatment) at the point when Disney bought Lucasfilm.

Lucasfilm co-chairman and now president Kathleen Kennedy will be the executive producer of Episode VII, with Lucas as a creative consultant.  When coupled with an existing story, that should be considered a good thing.   Because it takes a lot of the leeway out of the hands of the director and screen playwright to put their own stamps and quirks directly all over this movie.

Some things we've learned include that the story will be original.  That is, it  won't be directly based on any of the novels or other existing Star Wars Expanded Universe materials.   The time-frame of the story should be some 40-ishish years after Episode VI, with what looks like so far Lando, Han, Luke and Leia and other characters in Episode VII in the new movie.   There will be some future continuity in Episode VII, what with Yoda and Obi-Wan and the Emperor dead.   Dead, as far as we know, ignoring the spirit aspect of it all.   Also it's pretty obvious that the droids will be along for the ride, our one constant it's been said.

For conjecture.  We might have a female lead character, with the name of  Chloë Moretz as the actress popping up here and there.   (As Jaina Solo?)   Some say that idea (the actress, not a female lead) was  linked directly to only  if  Matthew Vaughn was directing.    On the other hand, the idea the main character will be female is something based upon a rather vague backwardish question-sentence (a tweet of all things) by Peter Sciretta.  

Which might just all just go to show that guessing..... results in guesses.  That doesn't make it not true though.   Yet somewhat obviously perhaps, the only 100% certain test of such things is the day the movie premiers to the public.    Failing that sort of self-demonstrating proof, you're probably safe to go with something like an announcement by a studio that so-and-so has been named as this-and-that, followed by public statements by the principals involved.    Not that things don't change, but you can't doubt everything anyone says in the present on some off chance of what the future may hold.  

Aside from Kennedy as executive producer (reporting to Walt Disney Studios chairman Alan Horn) and Lucas as creative consultant though, what else.    The screenplay is going to be written by Michael Arndt.   The movie will be produced and directed by J.J. Abrams in conjunction with Bryan Burk and Bad Robot Productions.

With an "outside" screenwriter (versus in-house regular-contributors  to the director's projects) (some might call them cronies) and with heavy studio involvement, Episode VII should fare better than when everything is done creative-control-wise by a single team with little to no oversight by other people with other concerns rather than just making a movie in the image of the director and associated.

That all bodes well -- which many powerhouse Star Wars-related industry critics and pundits and insiders and fans happen to agree with.  Of course, it doesn't make it true that because of such things it will be a good movie.   So hopefully that turns out to be what actually happens here, a movie that's more like the first three and less like the last three.    Fans shouldn't have to take even one more movie that is (at best) a bare skeleton of what it could be.

Aside from having other people besides the director and his associates doing the story,  screenplay and executive production?   There is at least one minor blessing here.   Quentin Tarantino won't be involved.   There is also at least one ultra super major blessing.  Tim Burton won't have anything to do with the movie. ( Hopefully he never even breathes anywhere near anyone involved, ever.)

It remains to be seen if Abrams producing and directing can give back some of the excitement and wonder present in Episodes IV to VI and especially the magic that was Episode V.    That's a tough act to follow though; one might say impossible.   I certainly don't envy anyone trying.  

So this team has their work cut out for them, that's for sure.    Are they up to the challenge, can they set the correct expectations, will they be good enough?   The signs are positive so far.

Yet even more optimistic are the reports that Lawrence Kasdan and Simon Kinberg will be writing and producing Episodes VIII and IX.   With the man that completed the screenplay for V, wrote the screenplay for  VI, and also wrote the screenplay for Raiders of the Lost Ark?   We should have a good feeling about this.

Friday, February 22, 2013

A solution that isn't, for a problem that doesn't exist?

Texas.   Population size 2nd, density 26th.   Size, 1st contiguous, 2nd overall.   Export revenue 1st, GDP 2nd.

By population, its 10 biggest cities are:

10.  Laredo 241K
9. Plano 269K
8. Corpus Christi 307K
7. Arlington 373K
6. El Paso 665K
5. Fort Worth 758K
4. Austin 820K
3.  Dallas 1.2M
2.  San Antonio 1.3M
1.  Houston 2.1M

Now some may ask what's the point of all that rather meaningless non-contextual information.  The question back is, what do you think of when you think of Texas?   Trucks, cattle, oil, cowboy boots and cowboy hats perhaps.    Quasi economic-social experiments shrouded  in environmentalism, perhaps not so much.

Yet an interesting thing has happened in the music college tech capital town  that likely doesn't quite fit in with what is the viewpoint about the place of many people either in or out of the place .    The experiment begins on 1 March 2013.


Tuesday, January 29, 2013

The Gun Show Loophole

The first item on the list to Protect our Children and our Communities by Reducing Gun Violence is the last to discuss.

1.  Closing background check loopholes to keep guns out of dangerous hands.

That is pretty specific to what's commonly called the gun show loophole -- which indeed does not apply only to gun shows.   This revolves around the requirement for federally licensed firearms dealers to conduct  background checks on gun buyers.  Specifically in practice, the NICS or acceptable alternative.     There are a number of exceptions, in that other, stricter,  federal, state or local laws may apply in any given situation.   But the law (mainly The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act)  doesn't cover personal sales.   Be those through a newspaper ad, at a hobbyist gathering, or otherwise,  between friends, acquaintances or strangers.    In that sense, it's not a loophole at all.

For the background check system, over a 15 year period, it blocked 1.8% of attempted firearms purchases, although some small number of the denials were appealed and reversed.  Few blocks were prosecuted for the attempt.   The majority of these denials were for felons, a large amount of the rest were for fugitives from justice.   There are likely some statistics somewhere that break down the number of attempts by known felons or career criminals and so on, maybe.   If so, nobody's coughing them up as evidence of something or another.

However, that 1994-2009 blocked purchase statistic of 1.8% does not include anything other than sales involving background checks.     Some sources claim that 40% of all sales do not involve a background check.  If true, which is up for debate, essentially means that only 60% of gun purchases are from a dealer, with 1.8% of those 60% blocked.     The rest?   Nobody's coughing that up either.   Just guessing about it.

We could ask if criminals (and others precluded from purchasing a firearm at a federally licensed dealer) typically buy their weapons from neighbors and family and  newspaper ads and hobbyist gatherings, or if they steal them, or get them on the black market, or just use something else.  We can ask if they buy guns some other legal way instead  of going to the store, because they know they can't buy them at a store.   Or we could ask if that same 1.8% blocked-attempt number would (if it existed) also be 1.8% for this alleged 40% of non-dealer purchases.   We could even ask if the system could handle 100% tracking even if it could be required and managed.

Instead, we're first going to take issue with a claim in the press release.   The point they make there is "the background check system is the most efficient and effective way to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous individuals".   Is it?   We should know the answer to that if we want to know if such a thing will indeed make things safer by reducing violence.  

Or we could think about the people this would apply to, think of it as they might.   If you were a dangerous individual, and you wanted a gun, and there was an instant and reliable and universal 100% check in place.  If  you knew about it and knew you would fail it, what would you do?    Probably not try it out.   So this gun, would you buy one illegally, would you settle on a blade, would you give up and just be undangerous?   Who's to tell.   We might as well be considering what percentage of violence is non-gun (or even non-weapon; aka steel chair, fists, pillow, tire iron) to begin with.  Or we might as well be imagining what the numbers would be like if all firearms on the planet all magically disintegrated five minutes from now.

Because nobody can show what sort of impact, if any, there would be from closing these so-called loopholes.   Loophole; the word giving the idea that something wrong and bad is going on, that somebody is bypassing something, getting around it, getting away with it.   No.  It's simply that the current laws cover some things and other things just simply aren't covered by it.   There isn't any loophole, there's a law that covers federally licensed sales of guns, and then there are other things that aren't   federally licensed sales of guns.

Now, aside from this rose-colored glasses and misty-eyed idea that stopping some 2% of potential gun purchasers that go to stores and fill out forms is worth the time and money and effort put into it.  Beside assuming that even precluding all future purchases of any kind entirely would do anything to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous individuals.   Beyond the claim that  total background checks on all gun purchases and transfers would result in safer children and communities by reducing gun violence.

The bottom line is that in many ways, maybe all of them, item one here is a non-answer and an un-solution.   It's linguistically devoid of meaning, and it's illogical and incorrect.  Meaningless, superfluous.

So with that settled, we may ask, what's a gun show?  

As a stand-in for all non-dealer purchases, let's say a gun show is the only way to do so.   Obviously it's not the only way, but let's say for the sake of argument and for ease of discussion.  Pretend that there's a single choice between 'a dealer with a check' and 'a gun show with no check'.    We'll also ignore those at gun shows with licenses that are required to and do a background check and those at gun shows not with licenses that aren't required to do a background check and make one anyway.

It appears that those upset with gun shows don't really understand them.  One might bet that they've never even been to one, and know nothing about them.  Why not look into that.

Just like any group, especially those who feel strongly about their hobby, they like gathering together for a number of reasons.    So while nobody much goes deer hunting or target shooting or engages in self-defense with stamps, photographs, earrings, artwork,  kitchen items, marital aids, comic books, ornaments, fishing boats or travel trailers, just like those sorts of groups, gun users and collectors and enthusiasts gather.  

While some may have the idea that simply walking into a gun show turns a person into a buddy of everyone there, one might want to think of the stereotype of a gun owner.    What would that be.  Plenty of things, maybe even all at once in the mind of "an outsider".   They'd be individualistic,  cautious of the government, a hick, a redneck, current or ex-military or police, hunters, gun-nuts, paranoid conspiracy-theorist.   Maybe the idea is just conservative church-going small-town rural type.  

For some reason, that sort of stereotype is all thrown out the window at some point.    Why would anyone believe that anyone at one of these gun shows selling guns, background check requirement or not, background check made or not, is just going to stop caring about who might have the gun being sold?   Of course the vast majority of them care.

People selling guns at a gun show, licensed or not,  aren't just capriciously and recklessly selling guns to children, shifty-eyed gang members, nervous out-of-place people, babbling lunatics, and stoners high on goofballs.   The people at gun shows selling things (be they guns or not) don't want guns in the hands of mass murderers or the insane or minors or the untrained either.   True, such personal judgments are not a background check, but maybe it's sometimes better.  You don't like the person, whyever that is, you don't sell to them, no requirement to explain why.  

So some doped-up gang-banger isn't going to walk in to a gun show and feel welcome and comfortable in the first place, and  for good reason.   Nobody's going to sell to them, if they don't call the police first.    Look, you're a criminal or displaying bizarre behavior and you're going to walk into a building full of armed citizens that are certainly not going to like you?

No matter which way we take all of that, the background check or not, how gun shows are probably one of the worst places a creepy withdrawn shy oddball would go to purchase weapons.   The truth of it is that these recent lunatics didn't purchase their weapons at gun shows.    I'm sure some crazy people and criminals have done so at some times.   That's a guess from the numbers and likelihoods of such from those numbers.  But which recent stories predominately feature such information??   Surely such details would warrant major attention from anyone who is "anti-gun".

Apparently not supported by the facts.    To use the Sandy Hook massacre as illustration again, he killed his mother and took hers.  To use the Aurora theater slaughter, he bought them at a number of gun stores, passing the background checks.   Even though it's not in the US, and so has very very limited applicability,  the Oslo terror attack.   It's pretty certain the nutbag didn't get his weapons at a gun show.   Although there was a report he tried to buy some in Prague but failed miserably....   The reports go that he got both his Glock and Ruger legally in Norway and he was registered for them there.  Gun shows don't apply to any of these at all.

So then, why is closing this non-existent loophole, that doesn't apply to much if anything, the first thing on our list?   Even if we could prove it matters a lot, which we can't, it doesn't apply to what's been going on anyway.

One last thing to think about though, not directly related to this first item.   At ranges, gun shows, military bases, police stations; anywhere there are weapons, accidents happen.  Yet recently there have been a spate of stories about incidents of people being shot at gun shows.   Well, of course that happens, it's just not usually focused on any more than deep sea fishermen sometimes drowning is.   So why would accidental shootings around weapons be big surprising news?    Yet one thing about these stories contradicts another idea.  When there's an accidental discharge of a weapon where many armed people are, nobody present just starts willy-nilly blasting everyone in sight, causing mass carnage out of fear or blood-lust.  What else is all out of proportion?

In closing then.

How does one solve a social problem of violence, with guns or not with guns? The issue is violence, not how it is carried out, isn't it?  If we ask the question of the highly-publicized mass murders, we might start with asking how many others not in these big stories are the victims of gun violence.  What are the total numbers, what is the biggest problem to solve, who's doing it, why, when, where and how.   These berserk killing rampages are far less common (but no less tragic) than the hundreds and thousands of separate and also tragic incidents of gun violence that plague the world in general and the US in particular.  The entirety adds up to much larger numbers of deaths and injuries than any one incident, no matter how horrible.

What are the steps we can take as a nation and as a society that actually preclude another Sandy Hook or Columbine or Aurora or Oslo or Oklahoma City, and so on.  Would these ideas to fix things also apply to precluding the many hundreds and thousands of incidents that not used for political and policy purposes.   Incidents that happen not just once in a while, but every day, week, month, year, decade and century, that include guns and don't.   And like these large scale tragedies tend to hide the bigger larger scale tragedy, these aberrant uses of weapons are but a small part of the safe, legal, ordinary ownership.  What is the point of focusing in on the out of the ordinary and not trying to fix the common?

Not to sound heartless, because our heart goes out to everyone impacted by any sort of violence, be it a school shooting, byproduct of gang violence, robbery gone wrong, serial killer victim, case of uxoricide or mariticide. By gun, knife, fist, or otherwise.   Our heart goes out, regardless of the weapon that might be used.

Yet like the press release itself states:  "We won't be able to stop every violent act, but if there is even one thing that we can do to prevent any of these events, we have a deep obligation, all of us, to try." This seems to ignore the quite real and valid concepts of scarcity of resources and diminishing returns.   It seems to ignore the reality of what is and instead focus on what is wanted.   The real world for the imaginary possibility under circumstances that do not exist to operate under.

The real common-sense of all this is is that if you can't stop every violent act,  you should be focusing on using the bulk of your resources to stop the bulk of the violent acts.   You shouldn't be wasting your time and money on increasing background checks or widening the gun-free zone around a school or prohibiting new sales of something  based upon its looks.

If we have a deep obligation to try to prevent such events, and we do, shouldn't we be focusing on solutions that have the best chance of preventing them?    Not wasting time on things that have a small chance or little impact?

What we are doing here is fulfilling our end of this deep obligation, trying to explain why.   If we want fix all this suffering "too much at the hands of dangerous people who use guns to commit horrific acts of violence" then we should be considering ideas that apply to the problem of  people who commit horrific acts of violence.

Friday, January 25, 2013

The Executive Branch Ideas for safer children and communities

These four items are not new ideas, and how a reader might consider them now depends on how the ideas are parsed, which in part depends upon preconceived notions of the topics and what the EBI mean literally and figuratively.

The first two we'll deal with (items 4 and 3) are good ideas, overall, certainly.

4.  Increasing access to mental health services.

This is pretty specific, in a way, but in a lot of other ways is unrelated to the either of the ostensible goals.   (A. Protecting children in particular and communities in general.  B.  Reducing gun violence.)    

That is, simply increasing access to something, even mental  health services, doesn't in and of itself help unstable people and doesn't in and of itself hinder the unstable from performing violent actions with firearms or otherwise.    A sociopathic predator  with more access to services isn't "a solution" to a particular problem.   That is,  "being able to more easily visit a mental health professional" doesn't in any way equal "fewer  strangulations, rapes and decapitations"

But yes, certainly.   Having such services more available, and then having them used in proactive helpful manner towards and by those who need such services, that should help to make people safer in general.    So this area is a good one to work at, even if it does nothing specific or direct to locate and treat those who may commit unexpected violent actions.   But doing something specific and direct is the solution part.   Either way, access to mental health services is a very good thing to increase, even though  it doesn't actually touch upon either of the things this press release purports to deal with.

3.   Making schools safer

Less specific (more vague) but yes still a good idea.   Generically, who wouldn't want safer schools?   The question though is how does one actually make schools safer.   After all, they are already legally gun-free and drug-free zones.  Harsh quick penalties are used against those who even bring in such things.    Yet clearly, there are those who totally ignore both of those; thus the laws in and of themselves don't physically stop anyone.  Like everything, the laws (the legal system)  can only react after the fact to those breaking them.

Any modern horrible slaughter that has taken place at a school has been perpetrated by the purposeful actions of violent people.   Some would say by evil depraved homicidal maniacs.  Either way, it wouldn't be reasonable to expect they would suddenly begin to follow any new laws.   They didn't follow  the old ones.    Blatantly ignoring laws proclaiming it a federal felony to be armed within some distance of a facility is quite an indicator, yet that's the simple part.   These people also broke stricter laws against torture, terrorism and murder.  

How do you make schools safer from the actions of criminals and the unbalanced?   If we operate under the assumption that laws can do nothing more than they already have, what things beyond them can be implemented and be expected to work.

Both 4 and 3 together lead to other questions.   Now that we've got the ideas of more mental health and safer schools, in this context we'd have to ask,  how are those implemented, what do they do well,  by "reducing gun violence" and how does that lead back to protecting children and communities.    We've gotten rather circular there though, and it's really another subject (the specific steps) so let's move on.

The second item is not so helpful.

2.  {       }

This is problematic because it's comprised of three things, two of which are both the same thing and drastically different, and the third of which makes a silent but unwarranted comment on the first two, and is both related and unrelated.   So we'll have to break them down.

Banning military-style assault weapons

Since the point of the overall topic is not really protecting people but protecting people by reducing gun violence ( "we want to reduce gun violence" which "makes everyone safer")  the question to ask here is in that same context, how to reduce gun violence.  It's a fairly simple question too,  since "assault weapons" are a particular subset of rifles mainly.

Does banning semi-automatic rifles with a certain look and set of features reduce gun violence?  

Arguing over how to prove or disprove that there's a direct exact specific  cause and effect relationship from one to the other is a whole other in-depth unclear, and effectively unanswered, subject.

Yet like the president refers to the Sandy Hook tragedy directly as example, so shall we.   There is no argument at all that in this case Lanza used one of his murdered mother's rifles which meets the definition of "assault weapon" to murder more people.    

There are a number of points here though.   He could have done the exact same thing with one of her other "non-assault weapon" rifles or pistols.  We've also got that there's some large questions if such a ban could be passed on the federal level, much less followed at a regional level where states and localities have either laws either already restricting such things or guaranteeing the ability to own such things.  

Regardless, even under such a ban,  her weapons would likely have been grandfathered, and he could still have used the exact same one.   Or if not, he had alternatives that wouldn't have been banned, some which were more deadly per round .   Lanza shot many of his victims a number of times.   We already know at the most rapid firing rate,  once every seven seconds.    This is not any faster than any long arm made in the last few hundred years can accomplish.    We are not trying to lessen the horror of what Lanza did, or trying to trivialize how deadly firearms are, but "banning assault weapons" has nothing to do with this, be it any particular .223 rifle or otherwise.     (For those who imagine an assault weapon is a fully automatic machine gun sort of firearm, they are not, and Lanza's most used weapon for carrying out his carnage wasn't either.)

Banning high-capacity magazines

This is essentially repeating the first call to ban, even more so considering one of the requirements for an "assault weapon" is a detachable magazine.  Clearly ammunition feeders are very non dangerous in and of themselves, but with a weapon that has a high rate of fire, or with weapons that are slow to reload, magazine size and more frequent reloading might put a killer in a vulnerable position for the length of time during reload.

In the case of Lanza, he switched out magazines mostly every 15 rounds, far short of the 30 rounds in what he had.   He fired an average within the speeds of feeding in rounds one at a time.   True, there are circumstances where a killer who only had one weapon would have been vulnerable if they were forced to reload every say 5 rounds.    However, one imagines Lanza had a reason for also carrying two pistols with him, even with the size magazine he had.    These killers may be crazy, but they're also likely aware of how to make sure they aren't vulnerable.  No matter how many rounds their magazines hold or how many rounds a weapon with no magazine has.  One way, they carry more weapons, including bladed ones.

Still in this case perhaps even that point isn't in consideration anyway, since all his victims were unarmed adults and children incapable of fighting back physically.  

Most of the same issues with the first ban idea fit here for this ban, including that such existing magazines would be grandfathered, and so even with a total nation-wide ban, Lanza still would have had them, regardless if he needed them or not.  

Taking other common-sense steps to reduce gun violence

This last part of item 2 takes it as established already, takes it for granted, that the first two ideas are common-sense, which they clearly are not.     They're ideas with unknown effectiveness and unknown results, and as we have seen, would not have made a difference in this particular case,  under any number of multiple ways of considering it.   The same thing also applies to many other of the recent mass murders, on school grounds or otherwise.  

Taken together, item 2 is a three-part idea that is so vague as to be meaningless, perhaps even counter-productive.  The first two parts don't answer the question of how wanting to ban assault weapons with or without high-capacity magazines are common-sense; that is, how doing such is both achievable and gives the intended results.  The last third part is devoid of anything solid that details what these nebulous steps (common-sense or otherwise) to reduce gun violence are.

The real question then is what are some steps to take that would reduce gun violence?     What would be the most helpful in answering that question is to detail actions that are known to stop criminals (those using guns criminally) from being violent.    How exactly do we accomplish the goal we say we are going for?

We'll look at the first item, and give the conclusion, next post.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

The President's Plan to Protect our Children and our Communities by Reducing Gun Violence

A release on January 16th 2013 from The White House Office of the Press Secretary.      The PDF is here.

This lists four things the plan includes, what we might call Executive Branch Ideas (EBI).    A memo from the CEO, so to speak.   So we are going to eventually look at these four mentioned EBI in reverse order, from the viewpoint of the title --  that is, reducing gun violence in order to protect communities and children.   First though, let's think of the title of the press release and some other issues revolving around that  subject.

Communities and children; that would be everyone, right?   Well, no, not really, because what they seem to mean here is "doing something about guns" because of what some people (criminals, murderers, wackos) have done in high profile deadly tragedies.   Most recently and particularly, what was perpetrated in Newtown, Connecticut (about 60 miles NNE of New York City).  


To put a perspective on the EBI, in the context of taking "meaningful action to prevent more tragedies like this".  This being the actions of Adam Lanza the morning of Dec 14 2012.  We'll look at that first.

Adam Lanza was 20.  He did not have a criminal record. (Allegedly he had been diagnosed with Asperger syndrome, but the details are unclear.)  However either way, the weapons used belonged to his mother, who had purchased them legally.  

First, Lanza murdered his mother by shooting her at close range with one of her own weapons.   He took four of her weapons with him.   A rifle (.223  Bushmaster XM15-E2S), 2 pistols (10mm Glock 20, 9mm SIG P226) and a shotgun (Izhmash Saiga-12).    Lanza wasn't old enough to legally have the pistols, but he had just shot his mother in the head four times at home and was on his way to a school to commit more murder.

Leaving the shotgun in the car, Lanza proceeded to commit violent heartless cruel mass murder that morning between 9:35 and ~9:49. He slaughtered 20 children and 7 adults, firing some "50 to 100" rounds (an average of about 4 to 8 rounds a minute, 1 round every 7-15 seconds)  from mostly the rifle, often reloading it after firing 15 of the 30 rounds in a magazine.  He met no armed resistance.   When he saw that a police officer had entered the school and seen him, Lanza committed suicide with a pistol.

Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting


That was not the most deadly school-located mass murder ever; that dishonor belongs to Andrew Kehoe, in Michigan, in 1927.   Kehoe killed his wife by smashing her in the head.   He then "fire-bombed" his farm, and while that was happening, his timed explosives, dynamite and pyrotol, blew up the north wing of Bath Consolidated School.  (The timed explosives he planted in the south wing of the school failed to detonate however.)    As rescuers were working at the school, Kohoe drove up in his truck and called over the school superintendent.    During a struggle between the two over a rifle (bolt action .30 caliber Winchester Model 54 ) the weapon fired into the explosive- and shrapnel-filled truck, which explosion killed both of them, another two men, and a boy, as well as mortally wounding another man, and wounding a number of others.

Horrible and deadly. The official tally from the explosions was 44 dead and 58 injured.  

This was in a time before gangsters et al lead to the 1934 NFA.  In the late 1920s,  anyone that wanted to and had the money could just buy a machine gun for a couple hundred bucks, by mail or down at the hardware store, or might have brought one back from World War I.

The Bath School Disaster

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Guest Post -- Rocksmith Rant

Editor:   I hand over the virtual reigns to somebody who sent me this.   As always, it is unedited by yours truly.

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Yeah, hi.    Here's this for you if you want it.    Whatever.


The Ubisoft-published game Rocksmith is an excellent teaching tool, for those that want to take the work, in bridging the gap between colored button music games and playing.    It's a lot of hard work though, and few of the skills from the games (such as Rock Band and Guitar Hero) actually transfer.  Mostly timing-related and some dexterity things, but little else of actual use.   Sorry everyone who wasted all that time (mostly) in learning how to get 100% on every song on Guitar Hero III on eXpert Guitar.

Like the essentially failed specialty Squier guitar + MIDI adapter for Rock Band 3 (RB3),  Rocksmith purports to help people learn how to play, and in practice it works surprisingly well.  The layout of the on-screen 6 x 24 fretboard seems a much easier way to perceive notes versus the way its done in RB3, although the selection of songs is much broader in RB3.    (However, the "precursor" to Rocksmith was Guitar Rising which seems to have had a much more entertaining set list overall, for the most part.)  Zooming in and out on the fretboard is sometimes confusing though, but nothing that can't be dealt with.

Overall, when Rocksmith says any guitar (which they mean any amplified guitar with 1/4" output) they mean it, so a fifty dollar beater guitar or a prized multi-thousand dollar works.  Unlike the few choices available for RB3, which is the only other game for a console (PS3 or 360 or Wii) that is a choice.    The selections for a PC music-game-wise are a wider bunch of selections, but that's an entire other rant.   (Although one should be aware in some way that in the non-console world, there are alternatives and competitors.)

In addition, with the newest version of Rocksmith or with the add-on, for bass on a real bass guitar, it's the only choice.   All that exists in RB3 is an emulation mode for the guitars, which frankly is a sub-standard waste of time for most anything.    It's almost as unlike playing a bass guitar as a violin is unlike a piano.

This isn't about how good Rocksmith is though, which it is, or an attempt to compare it to RB3, they're really different things.  (For those wishing to read more about the game itself, we suggest here at Wikipedia.)

No, this is mostly a rant about what sucks about Rocksmith.

These comments are XBOX 360 centric, but we imagine most everything applies to some extent for the PS3 and PC.  (There is no Wii version; even the PS3 and 360 struggle with some aspects.)

When you start out with the game, the corporate involvement of Gibson is apparent.   Not that there's anything wrong with that, but we should begin easy in our whining.

Some of the first screens are annoying, such as having to actually press start (no green A button) something even Rock Band stopped doing.   They also demand nothing be in between the guitar (bass guitar) and the console, but the problem is the Real Tone cable has a straight plug, problematic when playing sitting down on any guitar that has a bottom side plug.     We solved that problem with an "L cable" and a passive tuner as a connector (thru) in between the instrument and the Real Tone Cable and the console.   In use, having that setup or going directly made zero difference at any time.   So what they probably mean is don't process the signal with effects equipment and such, because you'll add to the delay, or some such, and also such processing is not necessary anyway.

This is one of the first of the issues with what they mean and what they say.    The fact that this program went through a number of designers and companies is very apparent.

On a side note, if you are buying this game used, the Real Tone cable runs about $25 or $30 on its own.   The game with guitar and bass guitar included, and the cable,  now sells for $38.   Yes, sorry everyone who spent some $40 for game and cable and then $30 for the bass DLC, yes that includes us.   Which of course that sucks too.   As it does also for those that spent $80 on it, and even more so for those who spent $80 and then another $30.    The point being, if you need a cable, you might as well just buy the game because it's the same cable for all platforms.   Which is another thing that sucks, you can't use any other cable like the $10 USB to 1/4" digital to analog cables, just this one.   Not surprising, but you know.

One thing that sucks is that at times the game complains that the signal from the guitar is too loud.    Well, you have to set the instrument to max level and the other sounds lower in the game and turn the output of the instrument all the way up to hear it well, and it's no fun playing and not hearing yourself.   (Although the game recognizes the notes anyway most of the time even if you turn it down and you can't hear it, to a certain point.)

The arcade games are okay, but start "too easy" and quickly become "too difficult" and you have to restart at the start each time.   Rather sucks, although can be useful to practice in some ways, but of limited use when you can't control it.

Often while playing, a blurb comes up suggesting tone is active and to try playing.   That means the guitar is being amped.   The problem is that most of the time, it's only on for a short time, so playing is frustrating when it stops, and it's also mostly at a time when the player is doing something else and wouldn't want to play.   So it takes a while to ignore it, which also having to learn to ignore it, well, sucks.

Tuning.   Fucking tuning.  God Damn fucking tuning.     Every single song except perversely enough, the only time it matters, during a performance.  Practicing?   Tune!   Doing a technique?  Playing an arcade game? Entering Riff Repeater?   TUNE TUNE TUNE.   We can see the need to have an in-tune guitar when the game is recognizing notes, but it gets tiring to the extreme.   It's more than annoying, especially when one of the quirks decides your Drop-D E string isn't, or when it can't figure out what's going on with your A string.    Hey, how about letting us tune it manually or in game when things start going wonky, not every single time.  Especially since it can and does happen during playing, and you've made no allowance for that.    Guitars aren't that delicate, jfc.

The menus for picking things.   What retarded chimp programmed this crap mess of a garbage heap.      If you want to go from one section (arbitrarily chopped into bits that are too big or too small it seems) of the song to another, you have to back all the way out and repick the same song -- made especially annoying by the song selection method.

You see, you don't end up back on the same song, and you can't sort the songs.    You get the first song in the list (which is a pretty annoying song) every single time, and all you can do is move through the songs in the order they're in where it accelerates (in some freakish stupid way) by letter of the first word in the song title.     No sorting by band, or genre, or album, or picking.    At the least, if we're practicing Sunshine  take us back to it!!

And events.   When practicing for events, it lists the songs and additions that it wants you to do.   You have to go back to the hidden choice of the event to pick something different to practice for a song, unless you've qualified.    Then it's not there, so you have to go to the main menu and go through the songs (starting at the beginning of course) and practice it out of the event.

Which Master Events.   Yes, max out all phrases (get 100% in some way, in practice or Riff Repeater, etc) and get over 100,000 points you can do the Master Event.    This means you can't see anything for the notes, in a game where you are conditioned to match the sounds and timing with the playing.   It's jarring.   Which of course, you also have to qualify for the Master Event by practicing it with seeing nothing either.    Give us some fucking sheet music or tabs you douchebags, or at least tell us we should go find sheet music or tabs to practice with.    There's nothing there in game to help at all learning to play the song blind; such information would be great.

What makes that worse is that you have to qualify with a score to play it in the Master Event, and that score is essentially (if you've played the song in an event a few times) impossible to get by playing it normally, even getting 100% on everything on it.  Such as the song by the Pixies on bass.    And there's a score requirement to pass the Master Event at those qualifying scores.   The heavy suckage about that?    Yes, they don't fucking bother to tell you about the score requirements, or that the "we can't see the notes like you've been training us to rely upon" mode gives much higher scores than the "we can see the notes you've linked in our minds to playing".    The reliance on colors and shapes is a common crutch that is a failing of all such methods of learning, but at least we'd expect they'd tell us in-game beforehand!!!

Now here's one that they can totally suck my cock for.   You fucking lazy fucks, I want to punch in your ugly mother rapping homosapien faces.   Regardless if you're playing guitar or bass guitar, during tuning (ugh, fucking tuning) there's a messages up top.    What ever do they say?   WELL I'LL TELL YOU.   They insist that you check if you are on a bass guitar or a regular guitar.  What?   WHAT?    Okay, that is just so fucking lazy programming, are you sure you want to quit you'll lose all unsaved progress, love on my dick three times baby, once for tomorrow, and twice more yesterday, you lazy fucks.

Do they think I just switched out the six-string higher-octave guitar that has B and e (IN OCTAVES A BASS GUITAR CAN'T EVER USUALLY PLAY AT ALL ANYWAY) for a bass?   Or the other direction, that I suddenly took a four-string bass guitar (that typically plays an  E that an electric guitar can't....) and plugged it in instead?

HEY YOU FUCKING GENIUSES (not) WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU.

See, they recognize the notes by digitizing the actual sounds, where it's so easy to tell the difference between playing an A1 and a B3 (or whatever) that even a retarded chimp could program that....    Okay, actually, I guess they couldn't, since they didn't.

What else.   Um I guess the detection for hammer-on/pull-off , slide, sustain and such (when you're trying to max a phrase in practice etc) could use a little work, it can get frustrating.   Sometimes that sucks.

The DLC, it's fine, but rather pricey at $3 each song.   Some songs are worth that, others aren't.  There's also the thing that you may like the song, but it's way too difficult for you.   They have these value packs, but some halfish the songs in each are pretty sucky, making you debate if even if it was free it would be worth the space on the hard drive and having to scroll through it in the menus you're scrolling through so often.   So the song packs aren't really any bargain at all.  

Ah, right, DLC.    So one time they have Pantera, all rocking out and what have you.  Which I'm sure they edit the lyrics to the point it's not worth bothering with (a common problem with all these wussies pussies publishing music games cowards).     But then they follow it up with DLC of Nickelback or whatever crap bands, Fallout Boy, totally overriding the cool with lame.    Still, don't get it if you don't like it, and there's probably a whole bunch of people that would love to have a vagina start growing between their legs that's their own, right?   Never leave the house.

And.....   That's pretty much it.   I'm all ranted out.   If you want to use this feel free.